​Points of concern
Potential scenarios
Challenges
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Points of concern
  • Verbal threats and provocations by the leaders of both North Korea and the U.S.  indicate their readiness to take military action. U.S. President Donald Trump stated at his first address to the United Nations General Assembly in September, 2017, that the U.S. would “totally destroy” North Korea if provoked. The North Korean leader Kim Jong Un stated a few days later, “I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged U.S. dotard with fire.”
  • Military threats and provocations are already happening. The U.S. has conducted joint military exercises with South Korea and Japan in the Sea of Japan. North Korea has conducted 23 missile tests since early in 2017, improving its long-range capability with each test and boasting that it is now capable of striking the U.S. mainland. While there is no way of verifying this, experts believe North Korea will be capable of launching an intercontinental nuclear-tipped missile sometime in 2018. (http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/29/asia/north-korea-missile-tests/index.html; http://bitly.com/MissileReport)
  • Japan’s dilemma in case of a North Korean attack: should it (or has it) already given consent to the U.S. to attack on its behalf? Japan’s definition of armed attack and “bloody nose” strikes against North Korea: https://www.justsecurity.org/51678/japans-definition-armed-attack-bloody-nose-strikes-north-korea/; https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/15/world/asia/japan-north-korea-missile-defense.html
  • President Trump can always count on one world leader for a good chat: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan. https://nyti.ms/2xLZifW
  • “No American strike on North Korea without my consent,” says South Korean President. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/no-american-strike-on-north-korea-without-my-consent-says-souths-president/2017/08/17/775290e8-8332-11e7-82a4-920da1aeb507_story.html?utm_term=.7774056286f2
  • The U.S. government ought to consult with its allies, South Korea and Japan, if they want to launch an attack on North Korea. If either or both governments refused to consent to a U.S. attack, would the U.S. refrain from taking a military action or would they ignore the message and go ahead? Do the three governments have a clear understanding of all potential situations?
  • The UN General Assembly has adopted  an Olympic Truce for the course of the Winter Olympics in PyeongChang 2018. However, extending the truce is considered unlikely.​​
  • https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/un-general-assembly-adopts-olympic-truce-for-pyeongchang_us_5a0ea83de4b023121e0e9167
  • https://www.voanews.com/a/extending-north-korea-olympic-truce-seems-unlikely/4235985.html
  • A war may boost the weapons industry but will have a devastating impact on both the U.S. and the global economy. A 2010 article in The Washington Post puts the true cost of the then-ongoing second Iraq War as $3 trillion and beyond. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/09/03/AR2010090302200.html; http://bitly.com/TrueCostIraqWar)
  • Frighteningly, last fall, there was significant public support in the United States to carry out a military strike on North Korea. According to a Gallup poll conducted in September 2017, eighty-two percent of Republicans and thirty-seven percent of Democrats favor it, in case negotiation fails. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa-poll/u-s-majority-backs-military-action-vs-north-korea-gallup-poll-idUSKCN1BQ1LP; http://bitly.com/WarSupport)
  • There are two types of negotiation for peace. One: be sincere and flexible in order to be ready to compromise. The other: be rigid and inflexible in order to plan for failure so that war can take place.
  • A majority of people want peace. But there are some groups of people who greatly profit from war. Their resources and influence are huge.
  • The U.S. President as Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces has constitutional authority to send troops into action, although only the U.S. Congress has the power to declare war. The military leaders are obliged to follow his order unless they believe the order is obviously illegal, which is difficult to prove.
  • It has been a classical and universal practice that a national leader who suffers from huge domestic problems and unpopularity often creates international conflicts in order to increase public support for his or her leadership. President Trump falls into this category.
  • Once a war starts, it may end quickly within a few months with complete destruction of the country. However, it is more likely that the war will take some years. No war is won without boots on the ground.
  • A war is waged against the regime and military forces  of the enemy nation. But the nation also has mothers, babies, and young children. The war will brutally crush and devastate their lives and dreams.
  • A war creates unhappy and hateful people—a seed of terrorism for decades. Instead, diplomacy, trade, and foreign aid will make people happy, friendly, and loving.​ ​
  • ​A new National Security Adviser, likely to lead the country to war. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/23/opinion/john-bolton-trump-national-security-adviser.html
​Potential scenarios
Challenges
  • The development and possession of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles by North Korea is a threat to its neighbors, the United States, and the rest of the world.
  • Efforts to stop their nuclear weapons development programs have not been working.
  • Sanctions against North Korea have been counterproductive, disabling their activities and causing a great deal of suffering to its citizens.
  • Demonizing the North Korean regime continues to multiply the problem.
  • Diplomatic efforts on negotiation between the Koreas has started, but it is also seen as North Korea buying time for developing their destructive programs as well as driving a wedge between South Korea and the U.S. (See, for example, http://bitly.com/DiplomaticDangers)
  • The last and only time nuclear weapons were used in warfare was the atom bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, in August of 1945. That attack, which happened over seventy-two years ago, does not remain in many people's first-hand memories. As education levels in the U.S. decrease with many people not even able to name their elected officials or the three branches of government, it is quite possible that people are cheering on the prospect of a first-strike nuclear war without any idea of how it differs from conventional war: radiation poisoning, hideous burns, long-term contamination of lands and soils, and above all, the likelihood of widespread global nuclear war and human extinction. (Visit the websites of Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum and Nagasaki Atomic Bomb Museum.) Currently deployed bombs are one-thousand-fold more destructive than the bombs used in 1945.
  • During the Vietnam War, U.S. citizens experienced the tragic death of family members, friends, and neighbors, and also witnessed bloody scenes on television, which fueled an antiwar movement. But now the public doesn’t seem to feel any imminent threat to their lives. A war with North Korea may be seen as something remote with only conceptual potential damage. As a result of the lack of fear of a potential attack, there have not been any large-scale protests or demonstrations opposing the prospect of war or worse, nuclear war, with North Korea. In the meantime, a military action could be launched by the President at any moment without public knowledge, discussion, or approval.
Learn More​
CNN Opinion: "Doomsday Clock: Nearing the stroke of madness":
https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/25/opinions/doomsday-clock-closer-to-midnight-opinion-johnson/index.html

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: The Doomsday Clock has been set to two minutes to midnight.
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clockwork8052

Reform the President’s nuclear power:
https://www.globalzero.org

Pursue diplomacy, not war, with North Korea!
www.change.org/p/pursue-deplomacy-not-war-with-north-korea

International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War:
http://www.ippnw.org/
(IPPNW was the recipient of the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize.)

International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons:
http://www.icanw.org/action/nobel-peace-prize-2017-2/
(ICAN was the recipient of the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize.)

President Trump and a nuclear war: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/taibbi-donald-trump-on-nukes-is-insane-ignorant-w516568?utm_source=email
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